- The Kashmir attack has marked a fresh episode in a wider realignment on South Asia’s chessboard: China’s ambitions are checked, America’s containment strategy advances, and Afghanistan emerges — cautiously — as a new diplomatic player in a high-stakes regional contest.
A Renewed Crisis in South Asia
A deadly attack in Indian Occupied Kashmir on 22nd April 2025, which claimed the lives of over two dozen tourists, has again marked a flare up in tensions between India and Pakistan. Accusations from New Delhi against what it alleges are Pakistan-based armed groups have triggered regional anxiety in light of expectations of retaliation. This anxiety permeates not just not the two longstanding regional rivals but also across the region and within a broader geopolitical alignments involving China, the United States, and, crucially, Afghanistan. The crisis has swiftly escalated into a litmus test of Chinese regional aspirations and U.S. strategic minimalism — as defined by Elbridge Colby’s containment vision under the Trump administration.
China’s Regional Ambitions Face Strategic Headwinds
China’s vast infrastructure investments in Pakistan, most notably the highly touted $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), rely on at least a semblance of regional calm. A military stand-off with India, however, threatens to undermine a stability that is already frail. Principally, Balochistan, through which CPEC arteries run, is already marred by insurgent violence, in addition to the deadly but separate insurgency of the TTP. Renewed Indo-Pakistani hostility will only compound these threats, driving away investors, disrupting China’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and increasing the incentive for New Delhi, as Pakistan has long accused it, of further support for Baloch insurgents.
Given Islamabad’s pre-existent woes in Balochistan, China’s access to the Arabian Sea via Gwadar, critical for its maritime “String of Pearls” strategy, is already vulnerable. An escalation that could invite naval deployments by India could potentially block Chinese strategic mobility in the Indian Ocean in addition to damaging CPEC’s already bruised edifice. The crisis, in effect, would pin Beijing into a defensive posture — precisely the scenario that U.S. containment architects have envisioned.
Colby’s Doctrine in Motion: Strategic Minimalism, Regional Tensions
The current scenario reflects, almost verbatim, the doctrine championed by Elbridge Colby, the new Under Secretary of Defence for Policy under the Trump administration, which prioritises risk management and China containment over active nation-building. Colby’s model advocates empowering regional powers like India to hem in Chinese influence, thereby freeing the United States from overcommitment in secondary theatres such as South Asia.
This doctrinal approach found resonance in President Donald Trump’s remarks aboard Air Force One, reported by Dawn on 25 April 2025. When asked about the deteriorating India–Pakistan relationship, Trump remarked, “There have been tensions on that border for 1,500 years so, you know, it’s the same as it has been.” He added, “There’s great tension between Pakistan and India but there always has been… but they’ll get it figured out, one way or another.” (Dawn, 25 April 2025).
U.S.–India Strategic Convergence: Sympathy, Solidarity, and Intelligence
The Pahalgam attack has also reinforced the growing alignment between the United States and India. According to Dawn (25 April 2025), U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who has previously held few qualms in displaying Hindu-nationalist sympathies, publicly expressed solidarity with India, stating on X: “We stand in solidarity with India in the wake of the horrific Islamist terrorist attack, targeting and killing 26 Hindus in Pahalgam.” Gabbard pledged support for Indian efforts to track down the perpetrators and reaffirmed Washington’s commitment in a direct message to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Similarly, U.S. Attorney General Pamela Bondi echoed this sentiment, declaring on X: “America stands with our dear friends in India and against terrorism in all its forms” (Dawn, 25 April 2025). These statements reflect not only sympathy but strategic alignment. Under the Trump-era recalibration, India is increasingly seen as a natural ally in efforts to constrain Chinese and Pakistani regional manoeuvres.
Afghanistan’s Security Balancing Act
While the crisis unfolds to the east, its western reverberations are being felt in Afghanistan. Historically, flare-ups between India and Pakistan have empowered armed groups with transnational reach. Kashmiri liberation movements have received shelter in eastern Afghanistan in the 1990s with the tacit support of Pakistan’s security establishment.
Renewed hostilities between the two nuclear powers could easily spill into Afghan territory, destabilising an already delicate security landscape. Moreover, it would disrupt trade corridors, humanitarian aid routes, and any remaining confidence in Afghanistan as a stable transit economy.
The Islamic Emirate as Potential Mediator
Yet amidst instability, Afghanistan’s Islamic Emirate has taken a rare diplomatic initiative. On 23 April, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Emirate issued a formal condemnation of the Pahalgam attack. “Such incidents undermine efforts to ensure regional security and stability,” the statement read. The sober declaration marked a turning point in Kabul’s international posture, and its reception was duly mixed. For many in Afghanistan, it reflected a shrewd realpolitik that posited Kabul as neutral between the two feuding rivals. For the domestic audience in particular, it was irrefutable evidence of the Taliban’s independence from Pakistan.
Interpretations of the statement notwithstanding, Kabul occupies a unique diplomatic space after having established official ties with both New Delhi and Islamabad. It is no longer beholden to the prior government’s overt pro-India stance, nor can it reasonably be seen as a puppet of Pakistan. This equilibrium, however fragile, positions Kabul as a possible conduit for dialogue, or at the very least, backchannel stabilisation efforts.
Conclusion: The Arc of Containment and the Search for Stability
What began as a regional tragedy in Kashmir is rapidly evolving into a crucible for multiple strategic doctrines. For China, the crisis threatens economic investments and strategic freedom. For the United States, it reinforces a model of disengagement and containment: a strategy that outsources regional policing to local powers like India. For Afghanistan, it presents both peril and potential: the threat of destabilisation, but also the opportunity to assert itself as a credible regional interlocutor.